Russia and Georgia

I've been thinking about starting a blog for a while. I used to enjoy confrontational discussions about politics. Recently, however, when people bring up political issues I would usually prefer to let them tout their views, and parrot what they hear from their favorite news source. In church a few weeks ago the sunday school lesson was about politics (when Mosiah institutionalizes the new regime of judges and courts, Mosiah 29, Book of Mormon) and I didn't say a word, other than to my wife.

This blog is my way of expressing my thoughts about international relations, without having to argue with people in the type of forum that often leads to a shouting match, or rattling off mundane facts for support of flawed theories. Some readers may not agree with my assessments, and I hope they will respond by sharing their own views, but please back up any allegations with legitimate evidence.

Now then, my first post is about the conflict in Georgia. First of all, it was very strategic manuevering on the part of both parties. Georgia saw a window of opportunity when the world would be focused on a somewhat controversial Olympic games (which may be cause for a later post), the President of Russia was away from the country to watch the opening ceremonies, and the general atmosphere of peace and cooperation that surrounds the Olympics. Georgia was obviously hoping for a fait accompli.

Their apparent goals were honest enough. The government wanted to get control of region that legally belonged to them; a seperatist region that had fallen into civil disorder. Few people would argue with such a goal. The problem is that the South Ossetia wanted to unite with North Ossetia, a people with the same sub-culture, but North Ossetia is controlled by Russia. Russia has supported this move, going so far as to give aid and support to South Ossetia. In a nut shell, both Georgia and Russia think South Ossetia should belong to them, Georgia by virtue of recent history and internationally legally binding (whatever that means) borders, Russia by virtue of the people's desires and their recent support for the disputed province.

Georgia thought they would be able to move into the region, crush the seperatist movement, take back control, and avoid the spotlight of the media since it would be focused on the Olympics.
Russia's intentions are much different. Russia has been a major power, at least regionally and probably on the world stage, since the middle of the last millenium. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation was relatively weak. Economically, diplomatically, and, at least in some ways, militarily (although they still controlled thousands of nuclear war heads that could be delivered virtually anywhere in the world). For the past 18 years the region has been slowly getting stronger in all arenas. Many news sources are saying that the conflict in Georgia is the first test of their military power. It looks like their military is performing quite well.

Russia's move against Georgia was also very strategic, for many of the same reasons. In addition, Georgia had a significant portion of its military, especially taking into account fighting experience, in Iraq. Georgia had committed resources to a giant ally, it didn't think it would need to call on. They severly misjudged Russia's response. Russia, I think, has more accurately predicted international response. The US is quite upset and feels obligated to help its little ally that has done so much to help (commiting the largest fighting force in America's war against Iraq, behind the US and UK).

I doubt the US will take any meaningful action in Georgia because 1. Bush has no political capital left, 2. democrats would be hard pressed to vote for a third concurrent war, especially just before elections 3. the US doesn't have the resources to commit a major force to Georgia. Nobody else is likely to take action military action against Russia because 1. it is again a major force to be reckoned with and would make war too costly, 2. the world is war weary with the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, 3. countries with the power to make a real difference are concerned with the recession that continues to grow in breadth and depth.

The jist of the discussion above is that Russia is playing a game of chicken and in the last few years they've created the image that they may be a bit reckless, war-ready, and relatively indifferent towards other countries and the embargos, and exlusions they might place on Russia. This all means that everbody is afraid of standing up to Russia, other than perhaps the US, which is too strung out to even hope to do anything. A brilliant move by Russia. As long as they don't push it too far, the fait accompli is theirs.